While many of you out there have already shifted your attention to the NFL after last night’s regular season kickoff game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Dallas Cowboys, I am here to tell you that it is still baseball season! As exciting as the Bucs come from behind last-minute win was last night, it is too early to abandon baseball, as there is all kinds of value to be exploited in late-season MLB action.
The race for the postseason has heated up, and this weekend we will see several series that have huge playoff implications. Headliners on the day include the Yankees and Mets squaring off in the Big Apple in a renewal of the subway series, with both teams fighting for a wild card spot in their respective leagues. The Reds and the Cardinals will play in St. Louis, with both teams trailing the San Diego Padres for the 2nd wild card in the National League. And the Los Angles Angels are trying to play spoiler on the road with Shohei Ohtani on the mound against the Houston Astros.
Leaders of the pack 🔥 pic.twitter.com/26ijkes5R3
— MLB (@MLB) September 10, 2021
All of those games are sure to be great, but the marquee matchup of the weekend comes to us from Los Angeles, as the Dodgers play host to the San Diego Padres, with the Boys in Blue trying to catch the San Francisco Giants for the NL West Division title and the Padres playing for their postseason lives, as they lead the Cincinnati Reds by just a single game for the final playoff spot in the NL. As always, we will be right there with you today, with everyone’s favorite way to play, the parlay! Let’s get started!
Money Line Parlay
Not all parlays are the same. In this first section, we are going to focus on money line parlays. The money line is your most basic way to bet on a baseball game. Because baseball has so few runs scored, we don’t see a point spread on a game like we do with the NFL and the NBA; rather, MLB betting offers a money line bet. With a money line bet, if you want to bet the favorite, you have to lay odds, and if you want to bet the underdog, the book will lay you odds. One example would be the New York Yankees as -200 betting favorites. That means you win $100 for every $200 that you bet on New York if the Yankees win. If you want to take an underdog, an example would be The Seattle Mariners +200. That means for every $100 you bet, you would win $200 if Seattle comes in.
Milwaukee Brewers (-145) at Cleveland Indians
The Milwaukee Brewers have the NL Central Division title basically wrapped up at this point, with a commanding 12-game lead over the Cincinnati Reds. But that big lead hasn’t slowed them down at all, as the Brewers are playing some of their best baseball of the season right now, with wins in 8 of their last 11 games. Milwaukee would love to catch the San Francisco Giants for the top seed in the National League, and at just 4.5 games back of the G-Men, they have a real shot at doing just that with a strong finish.
The Brew Crew will start Adrian Houser tonight in Cleveland, against the Indians, and while Houser hasn’t posted some of the eye-popping stats of his rotation mates like Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, or Brandon Woodruff, he has been quite good. The Brewers have won 11 of his last 13 starts, and he is coming off one of the best starts of his career in his last outing, a complete game shutout against the St. Louis Cardinals.
Cleveland will try and answer Houser with rookie Eli Morgan. Morgan pitched well his last time out, but consistency has been an issue for the 25-year-old, as he just hasn’t been able to string together quality starts. Morgan has an ERA of 5 and a half runs, and surprisingly enough, he is actually much better on the road, than he is at home. At home this season, Morgan is a dreadfully bad 1-5 with a 7.53 ERA in 8 starts.
Brewers finish 10-6 and win four series in 16 consecutive games. Shake hands because the division lead is a season-high 12 games (franchise record). @Brewers pic.twitter.com/WNA1l9EjVL
— Sophia Minnaert (@SophiaMinnaert) September 9, 2021
The Brewers have been good everywhere this year, but they have been especially hard to beat on the road, as they have the best road record in the Major Leagues entering play today. Milwaukee’s schedule lays out well for them to catch the Giants for the top seed in the National League playoffs as they play series against the Indians, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals, and Mets, all teams that are currently on the outside looking in for the postseason.
This is a mismatch on the mound, as Houser is the far more accomplished starter, that is pitching at his best right now, and Eli Morgan just can’t get guys out at home. The Brewers are the far superior team, and they want to win this game bad, whereas the Indians are just playing out the stick of a disappointing season. Give me the Brewers as they cruise to a no sweat victory today in Cleveland.
Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (-160)
Talk about another game with heavy playoff implications. The Boston Red Sox are clinging to a 1-game lead over the New York Yankees and a game and a half lead over the Toronto Blue Jays for the wild card in the American League. Both the Seattle Mariners and Oakland Athletics are looming just 2 games back, which tells me that a lot of teams are going to be checking in on this score today on the South Side of Chicago. Boston will go with upstart rookie right-hander Tanner Houck on the mound in a must-win game.
Houck has been a pleasant surprise for the Bo Sox this season with a 3.26 ERA, and after a shaky month of August that saw him pitch only 22.2 innings across 5 starts and post a 4.76 ERA, he got back on track in his last outing, blanking the Cleveland Indians in 5 innings of work. While Houck has been solid, shutting down the White Sox in Chicago, where they have the best home field record in the American League, is a tall task.
On Deck: Boston
Photos of the Series, presented by @Walgreens:
— Chicago White Sox (@whitesox) September 10, 2021
The White Sox will start Carlos Rodon, who, if he hadn’t missed nearly a full month’s worth of action last month, would have a real shot at taking home the Cy Young Award honors in the AL. Rodon is 11-5 with a 2.41 ERA and has racked up an impressive 168 Ks in just 119.2 innings pitched. At home, he has been even better, holding opposing teams to just a .179 batting average in the Windy City.
On the surface, Boston needs this game more than the White Sox do. Chicago is going to win the AL Central Division title, and their place in the postseason isn’t in jeopardy. That being said, Boston is barely above .500 on the road this season, and with how great the White Sox have been at home, I see Chicago winning this game behind yet another strong outing from Carlos Rodon.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Seattle Mariners (-155)
The Seattle Mariners haven’t made the playoffs in a generation, as the last time the M’s went to the postseason, I was still in high school, and the year was 2001! Seattle has a chance at breaking through with a playoff appearance this year, though, as they are just 2 games out of the wild card in the AL. A big reason why the Mariners are still in the hunt was their sweep of the Arizona Diamondbacks last week in Phoenix.
That sweep was huge for Seattle’s postseason dreams, and they welcome Arizona to town tonight for the opening game of a 3-game series, knowing that anything less than another sweep over the DBacks will be damaging to their chances at catching either the Red Sox or Yankees for the final postseason spot in the league.
See you tonight. #SeaUsRise pic.twitter.com/YOhCRwafOT
— Seattle Mariners (@Mariners) September 10, 2021
The Mariners will put their best foot forward tonight at home as they start their ace, Marco Gonzalez. Marco didn’t look very much like an ace this year for Seattle, but in August, when his team needed him the most, he stepped up in a big way, posting an elite 1.58 ERA in 6 starts. The Mariners have managed to win each of Marco’s last 5 starts, including his last outing, coming against these very same Arizona Diamondbacks, and I like him to lead his team to another victory tonight at home.
Madison Bumgarner has been all over the place for the DBacks this season, as he is either great or terrible and has been very streaky. After missing 6 weeks with an injury, he returned and held teams to 2 earned runs or fewer in his first 6 starts. But in his last 3 starts, he has gone off the rails again, getting hammered for 14 runs, all earned, in just 17 innings pitched, and the DBacks lost all 3 games.
This game means way too much for Seattle for them to give anything but a full effort, and after seeing them sweep Arizona on the road, I would expect nothing else in this series as Arizona has the worst road record in the Majors Leagues at a dismal 17-52. I am laying some wood and taking the Mariners.
Money Line Parlay
Milwaukee Brewers -145
Chicago White Sox -160
Seattle Mariners -155
$100 Bet Pays $452
Game Total Parlay
The game total bet, commonly known as an over/under bet, is when you bet on how many total runs will be scored in a game. These totals tend to range from 7 or 8 runs on the low end up to 12 to 13 runs on the high end, and you have to pay juice on both sides of the action. A typical totals bet would be, for example, 8 total runs with -110 juice on the over or the under. If the teams combine to score 9 runs or more, the book pays out the over bets, if the game comes in at 7 runs or less the books pay the under bets, and if the total lands right at 8 runs, all bets push.
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 Runs (-110)
Neither of these teams are known for their ability to score runs, but I see both teams bucking that trend tonight, as I see fireworks coming in the Steel City. Josiah Grey is an exciting young prospect for the Nationals and was one of the key pieces the Nationals got back in the Max Scherzer/Trea Turner deal.
But as most rookies do from time to time, he is struggling, and in his last 2 starts, he has gotten pounded for 12 earned runs in just 7 innings pitched. Pirates starter Steven Brault is on a similar rough run, as he too has allowed 12 earned runs in his last 2 starts in just 7 innings of work. Both of these guys have ERA’s north of 5, and a half runs on the year, and this game should sail to the over early as runs are going to be easy to come by today in Pittsburgh.
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 Runs (-110)
We have a sneaky good pitching matchup in store for you today in Atlanta, with Trevor Rogers going against Ian Anderson. Neither of these guys are household names as of yet, but at age 23, both of these guys are going to be future All-Stars.
Rogers has a 2.52 ERA on the year, and Anderson has stepped into a top of the rotation role for the Braves with their rotation decimated by injuries and has posted a 3.61 ERA. This game has 3-2 written all over it, and I doubt we are even going to have to sweat this under in the slightest.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 Runs (-110)
You want an underrated starting pitching matchup? Look no further than this game between the Padres and the Dodgers. Julio Urias leads the majors in wins with 16 and is top-15 in both ERA (3.11) and WHIP (1.05). Joe Musgrove doesn’t have the win total that Urias has, but that hasn’t been his fault, as he is 8th in the game in both ERA (2.87) and WHIP (1.01).
This game has all kinds of playoff implications, and with the stakes so high, runs are going to be hard to come by tonight in LA. Both of these teams are certainly capable of sending this game to the over all on their own as they both swing heavy bats, but my gut says this is an ultra-competitive and very low scoring contest that stays well under the total.
Game Total Parlay
Washington Nationals at Pittsburgh Pirates Over 8.5 Runs -110
Miami Marlins at Atlanta Braves Under 8.5 Runs -110
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 Runs -110
$100 Bet Pays $700
The Daily Dog
Do you want a chance at jumbo payouts? The best way to stack the cash fast is by parlaying underdogs! You can find high-value underdogs on the board basically every day betting Major League Baseball, and there is no way to win faster than by parlaying a couple of dogs together and getting paid.
Cincinnati Reds at St. Louis Cardinals (+105)
I love me some home underdogs, and that will be my play in this one, as I will back the St. Louis Cardinals tonight, getting some juice at Busch Stadium. Entering play today, the Reds trail the Padres by just a single game for the final playoff spot in the NL, and the Cardinals are just 2 games back of the Reds, making this a big game for both teams.
The Reds looked like they were going to run away with that wild card spot as the Padres were slumping, and the Reds were on fire, but Cincy has hit the skids recently, losing 7 of their last 10 games. That losing streak has come at the worst possible time, and the Cards have taken advantage of that slump to play their way back into the postseason conversation.
If you’re reading this, we’ll see you in a few hours ✌️ pic.twitter.com/J09QvEmcUT
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) September 9, 2021
Jon Lester was a bit of an underwhelming add for St. Louis at the trade deadline, but he is showing everyone why the Cardinals decided to bring him in recently, as he has given up just 1 earned run in 4 of his last 5 starts. Reds starter Tyler Mahle has put together a nice season, but his solid production hasn’t exactly equated to wins for the Reds, as they had lost 8 of his previous 12 games before winning his last start. I think the Cardinals have caught the Reds at the perfect time for the upset, and I will back St. Louis tonight at home.
Los Angeles Angels (+170) at Houston Astros
How good has Shohei Ohtani been this season? Let me put it to you like this. Chicago White Sox slugger Jose Abreu has won back-to-back AL player of the month awards, leads the majors with 104 RBI, and has smashed 28 home runs. Toronto Blue Jays masher Vladimir Guerrero JR is top-5 in the game in batting average, home runs, RBI, and OPS and has a real shot at winning the triple crown. Neither of those guys are going to get a single 1st place vote for the AL MVP Award this year, as Ohtani is going to win it unanimously. Yeah, he has been that good.
Sho + Yu 🎌 pic.twitter.com/6G8c1WwMT1
— Los Angeles Angels (@Angels) September 8, 2021
Most of the attention surrounding Ohtani focuses on his bat, and rightfully so, as he has led the majors in homers nearly all season long. But his pitching has been elite as well, as he is 9-1 with a sub-3-run ERA, and a double-digit K/9 rate. The kid has been downright filthy, and while you can’t argue that the Astros are the better overall team in this matchup, I just can’t resist getting the modern-day Babe Ruth as such a giant underdog. Ohtani does something nearly every day that makes our jaws drop, and I will back him tonight, hoping that he can do it one more time and get us paid.
The Daily Dog Money Line Parlay
St. Louis Cardinals +105
Los Angeles Angels +170
$100 Bet Pays $554
Get Rich Or Die Trying
In this final section, we are going to go for the jumbo payouts! These are your lottery ticket types of plays that aren’t going to come in all that often but pay off big time when they do. A wise man once said, if you don’t swing hard, you never hit any home runs. Well, in this section, we swing for the fences!
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Runs (-165) at Baltimore Orioles
If you are a regular reader of my daily picks, you will know that I don’t make very many run line plays. Laying that run and a half always seems like a better deal than it actually is, and I won’t lay the run line unless I feel that there are compelling reasons that the game will be a blowout. This game is what run line bets were made for as the Blue Jays are on absolute fire, with an 8-0 record this month, and wins in 11 of their last 12 games.
The Orioles, on the other hand, are the worst team in the American League, and their -235-run differential is completely embarrassing. No team gets blown out more than the O’s do, and with Robbie Ray closing in on a potential Cy Young Award win, the Blue Jays are going to smash Baltimore in this game.
Orioles starter Chris Ellis has actually pitched well, but it hasn’t mattered, as Baltimore still gets smashed every time that he pitches. Give me the Blue Jays laying a run and a half as they cruise to a blowout victory today at Camden Yards.
New York Yankees (-125) at New York Mets
What is going on with the New York Yankees? After a blazing hot run in July and August, the Yankees have stumbled to the finish line, and it just might cost them their shot at the postseason. New York has lost 10 of their last 12 games, and they ride a 6-game losing streak into his subway series game with their crosstown rival Mets. As bad as much of this New York team has been, Jordan Montgomery has been one of the few bright spots recently, as he has pitched really well.
Montgomery has allowed only 6 total earned runs in his last 7 starts combined. That run has pushed his ERA all of the way down to 3.47, which would be one of the lowest in the AL if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. The Yankees badly need him to be sharp again tonight, and I think that is just what will happen against the weak hitting Mets.
Just like the rest of this Mets team, Tylor Megill seems to be out of gas. The Mets were in 1st place for the majority of the season, but a late season collapse has them quickly falling out of contention. Megill had a 2.04 ERA through his first 7 starts of the season, but since then, he has been terrible, with an ERA above 6 runs. The Mets have lost 5 of his last 7 starts, and with Jordan Montgomery pitching so well, I see another loss headed their direction. Give me the Yankees.
Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers (+135)
Home dogs are always going to be my favorite type of plays, and I will make another one here and back the Detroit Tigers against the Tampa Bay Rays. The Tigers aren’t going to make the playoffs, but they are still playing hard, and this multi-year rebuild seems to be nearing its end, as these young guys in Motown are playing quality baseball.
As much as I like what Detroit is doing as they build towards the future, this play is much more of a fade of Rays starter Michael Wacha. Wacha has been awful for the Rays this season with a 5.54 ERA, and on the road, he is even worse, with a 1-3 record and 6.75 ERA. In his last 6 road starts, he has pitched a total of 24 innings and has gotten walloped for 27 earned runs! Tampa Bay is a great team, but this is a bad spot, and I am backing the home team Tigers getting a boatload of juice.
San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers (-155)
Our final play of the day comes to us from Los Angeles as the Dodgers host the Padres. I looked really hard at this game and thought about taking the Padres, but when I saw that the Dodgers haven’t lost a game with Julio Urias pitching since July, and he has only had one losing decision since May, I knew I couldn’t fade LA. The Dodgers are 21-6 in his 27 starts this season, and that is too much sustained success not to want to back the Dodgers every time that he pitches.
In this episode of #BackstageDodgers, @Alex_Vesia returns to his childhood home and takes on the Padres with his family and friends watching from the stands. Watch the full episode now at https://t.co/ddAWW1ovRz. pic.twitter.com/O5CmdgirUM
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) September 9, 2021
Even with as great as Joe Musgrove has been this season, the Padres just don’t seem to win when he pitches nearly as often as they should. San Diego is 15-11 when Musgrove starts, which is quite disappointing when you see how well he has pitched most of the time. The Dodgers swept the Padres late last month in San Diego, and with the season series shifting back to LA, I see the Dodgers continuing to dominate the Friars with another win tonight in the City of Angels.
Get Rich Or Die Trying Parlay
Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 Runs -165
New York Yankees -125
Detroit Tigers +135
Los Angeles Dodgers -155
$100 Bet Pays $1,118
Parlays are a great way to make quick cash, and here you have four different ways to get in on the parlay bet action! Betting on Major League baseball can be both fun and exciting, as well as being very profitable! Make sure you swing by TheSportsGeek’s Major League Baseball betting page, where our team of pro handicappers bring you sharp betting advice and free MLB picks each and every day!